Harry Clarke

Liquor stores don’t cause domestic violence or crime

hc — Tue, 15 May 2012 03:29:30 +0000

In the past I have criticised the argument that reducing the number of liquor stores will reduce the crime rate. Police statisticians identify a correlation between the number of liquor stores and hence of drinking with the incidence of crime in a community. They deduce that reducing the number of stores will cut crime. Now a bone-headed argument is making the rounds that reducing the number of stores will cut domestic violence. This is boneheaded because it ignores the fact that stores will locate where entrepreneurs assume residents will consume large amounts of alcohol – primarily in blue-collar and poor areas. Proponents of such arguments consider demand but not the drivers of supply. The effects of cutting stores on crime or on domestic violence will at best be modest – if store numbers are cut the more plausible response is that people will simply have to travel further to get their liquor – this might influence the effective consumption price somewhat but, given relatively inelastic demands, the effects in curbing alcohol consumption, and hence crime or violence, will be minor.

Stanton & Killeen Vintage Port 1972

hc — Sat, 12 May 2012 13:10:15 +0000

I was fortunate enough to participate in drinking a single bottle of this port recently – its the last of 4 vintage ports I have cellared from the 1970s – all were very good but this was outstanding. An amazing wine – it tasted like a bright young fruity port even though it was 40 years of age. I am sure this wine will continue to last for decades if cellared correctly. Very sweet shiraz flavours and a distinctive old-fashioned dessert-style compared to modern ports. The fortified wines of Rutherglen are some of most distinctive wines Australia has produced. This obituary to the son of the distinguished wine-maker claims the 1972 was his best vintage port. The 1997 is apparently another great vintage.

Dirt cheap pinot noir that is good

hc — Wed, 09 May 2012 12:38:27 +0000

I read in the Epicure section of The Age on Tuesday an enthusiastic recommendation for De Bortoli’s Windy Peak Pinot Noir. At Dan Murphy’s liquor stores the 2010 was retailing tonight at under $10 a bottle. Its not great pinot but it is very, very good – fragrant bouquet and simple strawberry flavours. Good acidity and aftertaste. I’ve drunk plenty of pinots at 2-3 times the price that were no better and some that were inferior. Even 10 years ago Australian vineyards were not known for their production of the premier grape varieties pinot and chardonnay. Now they produce many great wines and some – like this Windy Peak – which are priced in a way that must scare the pants off their competitive opposition.

Very good quality wine – great price.

Ostrom & Williamson

hc — Sat, 05 May 2012 10:32:11 +0000

I have been teaching undergraduate courses in microeconomics and environmental economics for more years than I will admit to. In microeconomics my thinking, in the main, is a refined version of what I learnt as an undergraduate. The main distinctive new feature of the theory for me stemmed from the work of Ronald Coase and then Oliver Williamson on firms. This substantially changed the way I think about the world. In environmental economics the most interesting work I did myself was on developing country forestry – the distinction between open access and common property regimes became vividly clear to me. This distinction has been the basis of the work since the 1970s of Elinor Ostrom. Both Williamson and Ostrom won the 2009 Nobel Prize for their institutionalist work as applied to issues of economic governance. For Williamson the prize was for drawing a clear line between activities carried out within firms and activities that were outsourced - the distinction defines a firm in terms of its organisation. For Ostrom I think the prize was for the way she showed common pool resources sometimes could and sometimes could not be successfully managed as common property contrary to prevailing views that they should be either privatised or run as centrally-managed resources.

For some reason I missed this interview with both Ostrom and Williamson that was made shortly after the 2009 awards. If you have 52 minutes it is great viewing.

Alfred

hc — Fri, 04 May 2012 11:06:01 +0000

If you own a Mac Alfred is a must-have App. A marvel at finding things, doing calculations & (maybe) tying you to the kitchen chair. Free but there is an upgrade you can buy. How did I live without this?

Podcast on the carbon tax

hc — Fri, 04 May 2012 08:44:53 +0000

Here is a podcast I gave for my university on the carbon tax. Yes, even I wince at my distinctive Strine accent. But, yeah, I am an Aussi.

Podcast on plain packaging.

hc — Fri, 04 May 2012 08:14:10 +0000

Here is a podcast I gave on the plain packaging issue.

Here is a new quality report on this issue.

Labor values

hc — Wed, 02 May 2012 00:52:40 +0000

Michael Alexander Williamson was National President of The ALP from 2009-2010. His past history of other important positions suggests he is a model citizen in the Australian labour movement. Indeed an aristocrat.

He has some explaining to do. So too does the ALP and the trade union movement. This is not just an incident which will be ‘resolved’ whence things can return to normal.

Update: Mr Williamson it is alleged took documents from an office of the HSU office at the time it was being raided by the police. A serious allegation that could result in a criminal charge. But the temporal coincidence confuses me. If the allegation proves true why was Mr. Williamson there at that time? Was it a coincidence or did someone murmur something?

Some recent smoking trends in Australia

hc — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 08:26:15 +0000

Some of the best data in Australia on the tobacco industry is expensive to purchase and mainly intended for use by the industry itself. It is obviously of interest for those concerned with reducing cigarette smoking. Cigarettes are, by far, the biggest component of tobacco use in Australia – their retail sales in 2010 were worth $5 billion compared to cigar sales of $29 million.

The legal carcinogen supply industry is on the back foot and not only because of the anticipated effects of plain packaging legislation. According to Euromonitor International (January 2012) cigarette volume growth in 2010 was -8% following already implemented tax hikes and bans on displaying cigarettes in retail outlets. Given restrictions on advertising and promotion, packaging of cigarettes is the only means by which brands can be promoted and even this will end with the plain packaging legislation. It will be very difficult for individual sellers (in the main, British American Tobacco^* (BAT) (market share 46% in 2010) and Phillip Morris (PM) (36%), Imperial Tobacco Australia (16.2%) who jointly control 98% of the Australian market) for players to prevent a decline in demand. New brands will find it tough to gain a market share – Imperial Tobacco Australia have introduced JPS as a ‘cheap’ brand following the excise hikes in 2010. This type of move will be more difficult in the future. With past advertising restrictions price discounts occurred by scaling up pack sizes and reducing per stick prices.

The ‘commoditization’ of cigarettes has therefore already commenced with an increased share of retail cigarette sales going to supermarkets – up to 54% in 2010 from 51% in 2005 – and a decreased share to specialist tobacco shops – down to 17.4% in 2010 from 20% in 2005.

Australia has done well in restricting tobacco consumption. Comparing 2010 with 2005 total sticks of tobacco sold have fallen from 22,532m to 20,151m a decline of more than 10 per cent. Much of this decline has occurred among high tar cigarettes. Production of cigarettes has grown strongly with an increase in exports from 1226 million sticks in 2005 to 4186 million sticks in 2010 more than offsetting the reduction in local consumption. Imports have also increased (much more will apparently come from a New Zealand plant owned by Imperial replacing local production from a plant in Sydney) but by much less than the increase in exports. I’d be interested in knowing where these exports go.

The industry, will be worried by the Euromonitor forecast of a further a decline in local consumption of 19% from 2010 to 2015 that would reduce sticks consumed in Australia to 16,322 million.

Branding remained important in 2010 with 75% of cigarettes sold being one of five brands (Winfield (BAT, 24%), Longbeach (PM, 17%), Peter Jackson (PM, 12.5%), Horizon (ITA, 12%), Benson & Hedges (BAT, 10%)). It will be interesting to see what happens to both total consumption and to these market shares with plain packaging.

* The BAT website is fascinating. I liked this claim. “Generally speaking, British American Tobacco thinks that smokers will consume fewer cigarettes each and smaller percentages of populations will smoke. However, the number of adults in the world over the age of 20 is forecast to grow by around 11 per cent over the next ten years. As a result, it expects global annual sales will be broadly unchanged in a decade’s time”. What a ghastly forecast!

Plain packaging podcast

hc — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 09:48:52 +0000

An excellent, balanced account of the implications of plain packaging by Euromonitor’s Don Hedley The PP legislation a frontal assault on the decades of familiarity consumers have developed with particular brands. An attack on the culture of smoking that will fall heavily on major brands. An interesting point I had not picked up is that Canada essentially has PP since 80% of packs are covered with graphic health warnings so there are limited opportunities for branding.