I’ll present this paper in a week or so at the Water Forum, Wodonga. Comments more than usually welcome.
Drought, Uncertainty and Water Supply Planning
Visiting Fellow, Department of Economics, University of Melbourne, Parkville 3052.
Abstract. Water supply planning when there is a threat of uncertain drought is discussed in […]
One of the first decisions of Prime Minister Turnbull is to transfer responsibility for national water policy to the Nationals, specifically to Barnaby Joyce. Apart from the fact that this puts water in the hands of a particular interest group – water-using farmers – this makes me uneasy for two interrelated reasons. First, the main […]
The problem of water shortages around the world is not due to the fact that the total volume of water available is inadequate. The problem is that the world’s water supplies are distributed very unevenly. Moreover it is difficult to directly trade water internationally because it is bulky and heavy. Products which are relatively water […]
I get The Guardian weekly and, over recent months, it has run an excellent serious of articles on global water (especially groundwater) shortages. I know a bit about the situation in China and India but the problems faced by California and the Middle East are also huge. The situation is grim and could lead to […]
Suppose government is thinking of building a desalination plant to deal with future possible severe climate change. Despite the current sound water supply situation over the next 10 years or so this is a reasonable supposition. Suppose further that the expected future discounted benefits of such a project are B(t) and the expected construction and […]
It was miserable weather in Melbourne again today – cold and wet – and further rain is expected over the weekend. To whinge a bit more: 6 the last 7 times I’ve played golf I’ve got drenched and it was a repeat on Saturday and today (updated).
I’ve been reading about the 1997-2009 drought – […]
The MDB Draft plan was released today. It is complicated and long – I have done little more than glance through it. The length and complexity has not stopped irrigators and conservationists from attacking it from different perspectives. Extra water diverted to the environment to flush out the system and provide therapeutic flooding is set […]
When the Coalition announced this week their proposal to double food production in northern Australia by means of a set of dams my mind wandered to thoughts of the great Bruce Davidson and his monumental study, The Northern Myth, that was written more than 40 years ago. I read it in my final years at […]
I have been reading with interest the draft report of the Productivity Commission on urban water supplies*. A specific claim made is that the use of a ‘real options’ or adaptive approach to urban water planning would have reduced the costs of water supply augmentation hence enabling lower water prices to consumers. For the cities […]
This is an expository talk that I prepared for the Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research (VCCCAR) earlier this week. It relates to our project with the VCCCAR on “Enhancing Water Infrastructure Provision with Climate Change”. It shows how stochastic dynamic programming can be used to guide water investments in the face of uncertain […]
The complete MDBA’s “Guide to the Proposed Basin Plan” is here. I have been going through it with some difficulty. I think there are good environmental grounds for don’t think the environmental case it presents is compelling. It is too easily dismissed as ‘protecting a bunch of fish and birds by imposing much higher food […]
I am attending an Institute for Human Security conference on the Millennium Development Goals tomorrow and chairing a session on water supply and sanitation issues. The MDG’s are quantitative targets the UN and 23 other organizations seek to achieve by 2015 – they include poverty reduction, education, health and other targets. Questions have been raised […]
I once worked on renewable resource modeling (fisheries, forests) but could see that – conceptually at least – the same types of models could be adapted to groundwater problems. One such problem was examined at the recent PhD conference I attended by QUT’s Wasantha Athukorala. The main difference with respect to ‘renewability’ in these latter […]
The ABS have just released a compendium of water use and other statistics for the Murray Darling Basin. I found it useful and valuable for understanding the MDB. Some of the choicer observations.
Physical Attributes. The MDB covers 14% of Australia’s land area mostly in NSW (56%) and Queensland (24%). A fair slab of Victoria is […]
The imminent destruction of the freshwater ecology of the lower lakes of the Murray River on the grounds that upstream freshwater supplies are insufficient to flush them out and that stored water suppliesin the river system must be safeguarded for human consumption might well be justified on triage grounds but it is nevertheless an alarming […]
An article Bush Bites Back in Saturday’s Age provides a perspective on the Brumby Government’s daft ‘Food Bowl Modernisation Project’ which will cost $2 billion ($1 billion from recent Rudd Government generosity) to plug leaks and evaporation losses in irrigation canals in order to increase suppliers of water for all – for local farmers and […]
Last Thursday I went to a talk by Professor Mike Young on sustainable management plans for the Murray-Darling Basin run by the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society at the Elephant and Wheelbarrow pub in Melbourne. Mike made a presentation based on this paper (well worth reading) and commented on the recent COAG meeting’s water […]
I posted recently on the water buybacks about to occur in the Murray-Darling Basin to provide increased environmental water flows. John Quiggin also made an post based on an AFR article he wrote. At the time I scouted around for a brief of the current state of play. This article by Asa Wahlquist in The […]
From The Age on the tragic fate of Victorian River red gum forests. 70% of these forests in the Murray-Darling Basin are in decline. I have already posted on the need to boost environmental water flows to these forests – they need a decent drenching every few years – but Victorian Premier Mr Brumby has […]
More suspect economics from Jason Dowling The Sunday Age. HUNDREDS of millions of dollars of Victorian water profits will flow overseas because no local companies are capable of building and running Victoria’s $3.1 billion desalination plant.A strong field of international water companies is bidding for the plant, with the winner set to control a third […]