Harry Clarke » Uncategorized

Fa piao again

hc — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 07:37:45 +0000

I was pleased to notice that my enthusiasm for Chinese Fa piao is taken up in a post at Marginal Revolution. Of course the streetwise Aussi economist got there first! I emphasised the nature of this unique Chinese mechanism as a tax avoidance device whereas Marginal Revolution see not collecting the Fa Piao as a tip. A possible clash of cultures here.

Catchy tune by Gotye

hc — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 11:14:28 +0000

I heard this on the radio while driving through heavy traffic the other day. My younger daughter identified it for me -its “Somebody that you used to know” by an Aussi-Belgium singer called Gotye and accompanied by the georgeous New Zealand singer-songwriter Kimbra. I think they are pretty good – its certainly a catchy tune. I bounced onto my destination ignoring the congestion externalities.Which, by the way, is the reason travel time is only ever valued at a fraction of the real wage – you can gain utility from sitting in traffic.

Christopher Hitchens age 62

hc — Sat, 17 Dec 2011 05:28:04 +0000

A formidable interview with Tony Jones days before Hitchens’ death. A tribute from his brother. A brief tribute from Christian debating opponent Tony Blair.

Falling in polls, Romney considers adultery

hc — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 20:48:52 +0000

The Borowitz report here.

Huddles with Advisors About Possible Affair

CONCORD, NH (The Borowitz Report)– Troubled by his fading poll numbers, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is considering a bold strategy to reboot his Presidential campaign: engaging in a high-profile extramarital affair.At a press conference in Concord, New Hampshire today Mr. Romney confirmed that he was consulting with senior advisors about the best way to proceed with an inappropriate relationship.

“Republican voters have sent the message that they want to vote for an adulterer and I have heard them loud and clear,” he said. “I promise that I will engage in a world-class extramarital affair that will make all of us proud again.”

According to one senior advisor, the Romney campaign was already holding focus groups and conducting special polling to determine the best person with whom Mr. Romney should conduct his extracurricular dalliance.

And in a sign that Mr. Romney is taking precipitous action to find an object for his adulterous intentions, today his campaign launched a new dating site, SexyTimeWithMitt.com.

But according to one female visitor to the site, Mr. Romney’s nascent career as a would-be lothario is still very much a work in progress: “When I first went on the site and he listed ‘tougher border control’ as one of his turn-offs, and five minutes later it was a turn-on.”

Still, an aide to Mr. Romney maintains that the former Massachusetts governor has “the right stuff” to be a world-class adulterer: “In the focus groups, the two words we kept hearing over and over again were ‘wooden’ and ‘stiff.’”

Murray Darling Basin Draft Plan

hc — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 09:27:17 +0000

The MDB Draft plan was released today. It is complicated and long – I have done little more than glance through it. The length and complexity has not stopped irrigators and conservationists from attacking it from different perspectives. Extra water diverted to the environment to flush out the system and provide therapeutic flooding is set at 2750GL whereas many in the conservation movement (and the CSIRO) sought a minimum of 4000GL. It is difficult to judge how much of the hysterics about these numbers is posturing for a better position on both sides. The Commission have put huge effort into getting the environmental science right in the face of valuation uncertainties by setting up about 100 monitoring sites in the system and adopting a philosophy of adaptive planning. Those who ask for neat definite scientific precision in relation to the environment/economy tradeoffs are asking for the impossible. On the irrigator side my guess is that most irrigators will be better-off as a result of the buybacks. Those who sell will do so on the basis of individual economic optimisations while those who don’t sell will have a more sustainable and dependable source of water. Some communities with low water valuations will disappear but that is the least-cost solution to this intractable problem. I’ll update this post with commentaries as they come in – there was an excellent pre-plan-release article by Mike Young in the AFR today but it is behind a firewall.

The link is now correct – thanks Al Watson.

Indian showmanship

hc — Thu, 24 Nov 2011 19:57:15 +0000

Speechless after watching this. We are selling these guys nuclear fuels.

HT Marginal Revolution

Carbon tax for Australia

hc — Wed, 09 Nov 2011 22:55:20 +0000

Australia will have a carbon tax of $23 per tonne from July 2012. Thereafter the price will be linked to prices in international carbon markets since Australian firms will be able to buy half their permits in these markets. Setting a fixed tax rate now means that carbon prices in Australia are 2-3 times those currently prevailing in the EU which are around $8-$12 per tonne. This is the defect of setting a fixed price although it does have the advantage of providing carbon price certainty during this initial period. A key question is whether Australia’s EITES (emissions intensive trade exposed sector) will be harmed by such a charge. Work I have done with Robert Waschik suggests the effects of a $27 per tonne charge on these industries will be small outside of the non-ferrous metals sector – there are significant effects on the aluminium sector. The effects will be small everywhere once free tradable permits are provided to the non-ferrous metals sector. The effects of a $23 per tonne charge will be negligible.

A few commentators are suggesting that the prospect of repealing the carbon charge regime by a future Coalition Government will nullify the effects of charging on investment decisions. There will certainly be an impact but my observation is that throughout the economy many firms are already planning a move away from dependence on carbon-based fuels. The key sector is the non-internationally traded electricity sector which, primarily, needs to be motivated to switch towards using natural gas.Short-term the main impacts on this sector will be driven by the renewable energy targets, a reduction in electricity demands following a forecast 10% increase in prices and the decision of the federal government to fund the closure of two brown coal burning power stations. All these issues are largely independent of the current specific carbon price.

Australia has made a start. We will end up with between 5-15% carbon reductions over year 200 levels by 2020 – the 25% target seems unlikely – which puts us on a par with the EU (a 25% reduction over 2005 levels), Japan (25% over 1990 levels), the US and Canada (each 17% over 2005 levels). Australia has some diplomatic clout at the Durban meetings on climate change.

Disrespecting science

hc — Sun, 30 Oct 2011 17:19:38 +0000

This article – extracted from New Scientist - provides a valuable summary of the anti-science attitudes of US Republicans. Its the usual stuff – climate change delusionism, giving equal status to Biblical and evolutionary theories of the origin of the human species, diseases caused by immunisations and so on.

This type of irrational credulity created free market fundamentalism and the GFC but is, at core, far more significant than this catastrophic economic event. It represents a backward step in the evolution of the human species towards a mindless endorsement of group irrationality.

The Australian conservative movement is becoming infected by this irrationality virus – a development which threatens both its intellectual viability and our future. The CIS, Quadrant and the IPA have not always been irrational groupthink tanks that disrespected science.

Abbott’s overwhelming flaws gives Gillard a glimpse of hope

hc — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 08:42:57 +0000

Tony Abbott’s idiot populism can undo his apparently election-winning political ascendency. It is obvious from the opinion polls that the Julia Gillard Labor Government is ‘on the nose’ and faces the real likelihood of electoral defeat at the next election. But a surprising feature of the switch away from Labor is the continuing unpopularity of Abbott. The electorate seem to be inclined to lean towards the Coalition primarily because they dislike Labor’s policies particularly with respect to the carbon tax. The carbon tax will however be introduced and – despite the anguished hysterics of the irrational right – it will not have significant adverse economic impacts and, as Matthew Warren points out in the AFR today (subscription required, page 79), the decarbonisation of Australian industry is already occurring and will continue over the rest of this century irrespective of who rules in Canberra. Claims that a carbon tax will cause significant economic damages are lies by interest groups and fact-free fantasies by unscrupulous right wing think tank groups and their intellectually bankrupt hangers on.

Given a reasonable level of rationality in the electorate this gives the Gillard government a small chance of at least significantly cutting into the Labor revival. The Coalition’s policy on climate change is simply daft, its opposition to the Malaysian offshore processing solution is opportunistic as is the claim it would reverse policies requiring use of pre-commitment technology in relation to poker machine gambling. There is substantial community concern with respect to all three of these issues despite a majority shift against the carbon tax. All in all its not a pretty picture for the longer-term viability of conservative politics in Australia and could be the reason that the more mature political conservatives, such as Peter Reith, continue to urge Abbott to offer something positive in the policy mix – for example with respect to industrial relations. If the Liberals do win the next Federal election one can anticipate opposition to Abbott from within his party as well as an ongoing community perception that he is a gib opportunist who is not really on top of the issues that matter to many Australians.

Update: Laura Tingle in the AFR makes very similar points. Quote re Abbott: “But two years is a long time to get away with being such a negative, opportunistic and hollow man.” This is how the dwarf-throwers at Catallaxy see this Tingle article. I guess it is predictable that these mental midgets go into overdrive in defending someone like Abbott.

A winner-takes-all-society will fail

hc — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 08:07:57 +0000

Joe Stiglitz makes the sensible point that the “1%” society America has become cannot be sustainably successful. The prosperity of the 1% depends on the prosperity of the 99%. Gross inequality is also economically inefficient and distorts a country’s politics.

Quote “It’s no use pretending that what has obviously happened has not in fact happened. The upper 1 percent of Americans are now taking in nearly a quarter of the nation’s income every year. In terms of wealth rather than income, the top 1 percent control 40 percent. Their lot in life has improved considerably. Twenty-five years ago, the corresponding figures were 12 percent and 33 percent. One response might be to celebrate the ingenuity and drive that brought good fortune to these people, and to contend that a rising tide lifts all boats. That response would be misguided. While the top 1 percent have seen their incomes rise 18 percent over the past decade, those in the middle have actually seen their incomes fall. For men with only high-school degrees, the decline has been precipitous—12 percent in the last quarter-century alone. All the growth in recent decades—and more—has gone to those at the top. In terms of income equality”.

Now well known facts but the inequality threat to the survival of capitalism is crystallising into a definite focus for dissent. It will impact on Australia.