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I am not a keen supporter of numerical modelling of economic phenomena. I have seldom seen key issues of controversy in economics resolved by numerical modelling and think that, as a policy tool, numerical modelling does not improve on sensible thinking through of the issues using low order non-numerical and even purely conceptual models. It is [...] I provided these remarks at the 54th Annual Conference of AARES (Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society) that I am now attending in Adelaide. It is in the main a simple argument for using adaptive management techniques for managing highly uncertain and complex environmental systems. Very provisional. Revised, comments welcome. [...] Having studied and taught economics for just over 40 years I have no doubts as to who in my mind was the most influential and the greatest economist of the twentieth century and that was Paul Samuelson. I learnt this morning that Paul Samuelson has just died at age 94. [...] I am attending the PhD Conference in Business and Economics at the University of Western Australia in Perth. This runs over 3 days and gives those about to finish their doctoral presentations the chance to present their work in a formal conference setting and to see the work of others. There are 35 presentations in [...] RFK said this in 1968. In a speech I heard today it was quoted and it stirred me. “We will find neither national purpose nor personal satisfaction in a mere continuation of economic progress, in an endless amassing of worldly goods. We cannot measure national spirit by the Dow Jones Average, nor national achievement by [...] I was not surprised that Oliver Williamson won the Nobel Gong in economics though I had never heard about the other prize winner Elinor Ostrom. [...] I gave a presentation on this topic to the Economic Society of Australia, Victorian Branch last year. Here are the Powerpoints. I am sure that Paul Krugman’s ‘How did economists get it so wrong?’ will get much attention in the blogosphere. Worth a read although I don’t believe that policy-makers were as naive as he suggests. They lacked knowledge and always will. A good read for economic students along with the earlier counter-counter-revolutionary work of Robert Lucas. [...] I will be speaking in Melbourne on Transport Taxes and Congestion Pricing at the Transport Economics Forum at 5 PM Thursday 27 August – Reserve Bank Function Room. [...] The paper I co-wrote with Dr. David Prentice on “A Conceptual Framework for the Reform of Taxes Related to Roads and Transport” for Australia’s Future Tax System Review was released today. Comments are welcome. [...] Gregory Mankiw argues that President Obama should refuse to sign any version of the Waxman-Markey Bill that does not auction off carbon emission permits. Our own Joshua Gans apparently agrees. The opposition is based on the notion that if permits are not auctioned that the lump-sum gains received by firms who get the permits will [...] Here. We are getting glib critiques of economics (and particularly of the EMH) in the wake of the fast-receding GFC. RL sets things straight. Let me take an excerpt from The Economist: [...] The RBA have an easy-to-read discussion of relative price trends in the Australian economy since 1993. Since the introduction of inflation targeting in that year overall inflation has been kept to around the centre of its desired range, about 2.5%. But some items have got relatively cheaper while other items have got much more expensive. [...] It is unclear whether (changed from, ‘likely that’) Kevin Rudd attempted to do a favour for a mate and lied to parliament about that. It is certain that Wayne Swan attempted the favour and took personal interest in seeing that the favour worked – Swan should resign and be replaced by Lindsay Tanner who will make a better Treasurer. The pair are now [...] My blogging activity has recently come to a standstill because of a myriad of work-related commitments. I am attending the Australia’s Future Tax and Transfer Policy Conference that has been organised by The Treasury over the next couple of days at the Melbourne Business School. The papers to be presented are uniformly excellent - I have even thought [...] I was criticised for asserting that the key objective of Chinalco in targeting Rio was to offset its monopoly power and that of BHP-Billiton. Reports this morning suggest that I was correct – China is threatening to take anti-trust moves against BHP and Rio presumably in China. Hard to see how since, in the main, BHP-Rio sell [...] From an insurance viewpoint we should be much more concerned about climate change than most of us are. The focus of IPCC reports is on a likely global average temperature increase forecast of 3oC by 2100 in a range of perhaps 2oC to 4.5oC. The mid-point of this range would lead [...] If you are a bit hazy on how to levy income and excise taxes – and have not followed recent debates - I recommend this paper by Gregory Mankiw and others. It is a straightforward presentation of key ideas and is recommended. I posted earlier on some shockingly revolutionary work of Louis Kaplow that I found most interesting who treats things more [...] 94.6% of Australian workers retain their jobs a year after the world experiences the worst financial crisis for 80 years. This compares with 95.8% prior to the crisis when the economic ravages of the Howard Coalition Government were still bearing on the down-trodden Australian working class. This disasterous state of affairs has led the reformist [...] One of the interesting things I have done over the past six months is to take over the editorship of Economic Papers: a journal of applied economics and policy - the current issue can be viewed online at this link. EP is one of the two journals published by the Economic Society of Australia – the other [...] |
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