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Commodity price forecasts: Optimism & pessimism

Groups such as ABARE are bullish on the immediate prospects for commodity prices on the basis of a continuing Asian recovery. I have no idea if this perspective is accurate but equity markets obviously don’t think it is. BHP-Billiton shares at around $46 are selling at about 10X projected 2012 earnings while Rio Tinto at […]

Long-term trends in commodity prices

This article in the Reserve Bank Bulletin looks at recent trends in commodity prices in a longer-term perspective – in the main from about 1906.

Commodity prices have declined over the last century by about one half compared to a decline in the price of manufactured goods of about one-quarter. Overall commodity prices trended […]