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John Quiggin does a sound job demolishing Tony Abbott’s claim that a $40 per ton carbon tax will double the price of electricity. It won’t – the increase John calculates at about 20%. I have been equally puzzled by people’s assumption that a $40 carbon tax on fuels would increase petrol prices dramatically. Again it won’t – the increase [...] As Machievelli wrote five hundred years ago, “there is nothing more difficult … than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things, because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the [...] Green groups often have naive political philosophies that they couple with sound environmental policy strengths. The Greens are generally preferencing dumb-dumb Labor in the forthcoming House of Representatives election in exchange for Labor preferences in the Senate. Its a good deal for the Greens since the Senate preferences matter to them and most Green preferences anyway [...] The lack of any Republican support and the defection of Democrat Senators from coal-producing states means the US is unlikely to pass a comprehensive energy bill this summer. Our own climate nitwits in the ALP (Bernard Keane at Crikey has an excellent summary) want to make Australian climate policy contingent on gaining a community consensus from [...] I’ll be in Canberra tomorrow presenting a seminar at 2-30 pm in the Arndt-Corden Division of Economics, Crawford School of Economics and Government, Australian National University on: Strategic Aspects of International Climate Agreements: China and the United States If you are at the ANU and would like to catch up meet me there. Its a big day [...] This is my recently published contribution on this issue, published [...] I am disappointed that Julia Gillard has said that, although she seeks to take action on climate change, there is a need for a community consensus favouring this action first. The case for claiming this must be based either on the premise that (i) without community support action on climate change is impossible perhaps because of senate obstructionism or (ii) that the Labor Party will lose the next election if it unilaterally pushes a climate change action agenda. Continue reading Gillard on climate change According to Laura Tingle in yesterday’s AFR (15/6, subscription required) the Department of Climate Change is looking into a ‘destination’or consumption-based ETS. This is something I have advocated for many years – most recently here. It is called a destination-based tax base because it is where emissions end up being consumed – their destination. This is [...] Huw Slater at East Asia Forum thinks so. He argues that a carbon tax in China is being considered within the period of the 12th Five Year Plan, beginning next year. A workshop I attended earlier this year suggested the same. My own work suggests that strategically China needs to mitigate its emissions because it has no alternative. It [...] This very brief piece from the MET explains how volcanos contribute to climate change. The general answer is – [...] Manzi argues that Krugman and Weitzman get it wrong when they argue that the prospect of a fat-tailed probability distributions motivate urgent action to deal with climate change. He argues that the tails are not fat and that spending unbounded amounts to address arbitrarily small prospects of catastrophe is analogous to the fallacy involved in Pascal’s Wager. Thought provoking [...] This excellent site collects them. I have a hell-of- a-lotta reading to do! I’ll add comments to the links below as I do. Recent items: Energy-Efficiency Program Evaluations: Opportunities for Learning and Inputs to Incentive Mechanisms I am presenting classes to several sets of students on climate change economics over the next few weeks. I’ll certainly refer them to this excellent non-technical survey by [...] I am disappointed that MT will exit politics but pleased that he is emphasising the issue of principle that is leading to his exit namely the grubby decision of Tony Abbott to reject an emissions trading scheme. Even if one disagrees with MT’s politics one can scarcely deny his restless, powerful intellect – he gave a powerful public [...] Another nice paper from PEW. Abstract: Over the last decade, a growing body of evidence indicates that soot and smoke from incomplete combustion are major contributors to climate change. Black carbon (BC), a soot component, is a potent climate driver that absorbs sunlight in the atmosphere, changes rainfall patterns, and when deposited on snow and ice, accelerates melting. In addition, soot can cause direct effects on health and agriculture. Climate and other effects of soot are magnified in broad regions where the strongest source emissions occur, but transported soot is also a major concern in the Arctic. The short atmospheric lifetime of soot particles also means that emissions reductions produce nearly immediate results, in contrast to most greenhouse gases (GHGs). Continue reading Soot I prepared these notes for a conference at Peking University, Beijing that I will be attending this coming Saturday. It is late in the day but comments are very welcome. 1. Introduction. Carbon taxes and, more generally, taxes on greenhouse gas emissions, are a widely advocated means of reducing such emissions to address anthropogenic climate change – see, for example, Metcalf and Weisbach (2009). I examine the positive and normative effects of a generic ‘carbon’ tax that covers the various greenhouse gases, with respect to its tax incidence and welfare effects including ‘double-dividend’ arguments. I also consider the appropriate choice of carbon tax base – issues of the breadth of the tax are considered as well as whether it should be levied on a ‘destination’ or ‘origin’ basis in an open economy. Then I provide an evaluation of the case for a carbon tax rather than an emissions trading scheme. It is clear that although the analysis focuses on design issues for carbon taxes that many of the same issues arise with respect to emission trading schemes. The discussion closes with conclusions and final remarks. Continue reading Positive & Welfare Effects of Carbon Taxes: Some Basic Economics* I guess that if you believe that Jesus was born of a virgin, was raised from the dead - and could both walk on the water and raise the dead - that it is not completely incomprehensible that you might not believe the science of climate change or the Darwinian theory of evolution. The more extreme forms of Christianity can be a [...] A very useful, enjoyable and concise Youtube on climate science by Peter Sinclair. The video refutes the message that those suopporting climate science are inept at spreading its message. Other videos by Peter Sinclair at his blogsite here. [...] Jagdish Bhagwati argues in the Financial Times (subscription encouraged) that developed countries should be subject to a strict tort liability for damages done because of cumulative past greenhouse gas emissions. I disagree with most of his views but cite them (see below) given his pre-eminence as a trade theorist, development economist and trade policy analyst. Continue reading Bhagwati on climate change negotiations I have argued several times (here, here) that it is wise to be very pessimistic about the consequences of continued unmitigated releases of greenhouse gas emissions. If this is alarmism then it is a rational form of alarmism. Rational because, as has been repeatedly pointed out, the costs of averting a climate catastrophe are small. Robert Frank, one of [...] |
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