Categories

A sample text widget

Etiam pulvinar consectetur dolor sed malesuada. Ut convallis euismod dolor nec pretium. Nunc ut tristique massa.

Nam sodales mi vitae dolor ullamcorper et vulputate enim accumsan. Morbi orci magna, tincidunt vitae molestie nec, molestie at mi. Nulla nulla lorem, suscipit in posuere in, interdum non magna.

Policy proposal on North Korea

The best deal offered so far in the ongoing conflict with North Korea comes from China. It is:  Abandon your nukes and we will offer you protection. This gives the North what it wants, namely,  protection from externally-imposed regime change. The North’s nuclear capacities are primarily defensive.Moreover, the policy is credible since China does want a buffer between itself and the “west” (the US allies of South Korea and Japan) and, most importantly, helps prevent huge possible loss of life in the North and South and in Japan. It gives time and incentives for internal reform of the wayward North. It addresses the core concern with North Korea which is their ownership of nuclear weapons and their ability to use and sell these weapons.

Moreover, the Chinese policy is credible since China does want a buffer between itself and the “west” (the US allies of South Korea and Japan) and, most importantly, this policy helps prevent the huge possible loss of life in the North and South and in Japan were there to be an armed conflict. It gives time and incentives for internal reform of the wayward North. It addresses the core concern with North Korea which is their ownership of nuclear weapons and their ability to use and sell these weapons. In time the Pyongyang regime may be bribed or induced to voluntarily surrender power.  A pre-emptive strike runs the risk of the regime seeking to go out with a bang rather than a whimper.

Moreover the Chinese policy package is not purely passive – it has ended coal imports from the North (a major source of foreign exchange) and is considering further sanctions.

The US approach is the brinkmanship game of ramping up threats against the bully regime (which is using nukes entirely to protect itself) while leaving the US with the option of a pre-emptive strike. This policy will either not work because the incentives are misaligned or will likely end in a bloodbath.   Every nation party seeks eventual regime change in the North but the slow and steady policy path proposed by the Chinese is plausibly less costly than the impulsive militarism of Trump and his generals.

On this foreign policy issue, China is showing leadership whereas the US is moving to antagonize further the obnoxious Great Leader.

Comments are closed.