I saw the outcome of the election on the English language TV news service in Beijing. It got lengthy coverage here followed by an interview with an academic who discussed the consequences for Australia-China relations – generally they were seen as very positive. (Incidentally I am interested to see the Australian ‘All Ordinaries’ among the indices included in Beijing’s “Asian Stock Market Roundup”). Also on BBC Asia.
I am disappointed with the election outcome – I certainly would have preferred Abbott to Gillard – but, in the end, cannot muster much rage. Abbott’s mindless populism during the campaign was on a par with Gillard’s fear-mongering and I cannot forget or forgive Abbott’s backflip on the ETS. Nor do I think Abbott dealt well with the severe cost implications of the NBN. In the end Gillard pressured by a bunch of fairly half-witted Greens and some naive independents might somehow get Australia to the starting post on climate change policy. It would be a good outcome and would justify the decision of tens of thousands of revisionists like myself who voted Green at the election.
We certainly won’t do it again if Gillard turns into a clone of Rudd who blabbers but does little. The Labor Party needs to act on climate change or be replaced by a group of politicians who would be better managers than they are. (180)
Harry, Gillard has said there’s going to be a tax summit next year to discuss the Henry proposals. Try to get yourself a gig and a speaking role on congestion taxes.
There’s also the opportunity for a non-dog’s breakfast ETS, something which would not happen if either party had a majority.
Yep, I’m fairly optimistic on the ETS – in fact this election outcome was probably about the best possible outcome from the viewpoint of climate change action.
I think Abbott has shot his bolt. Gillard will look for a good pretext for an election over the next couple of years. Yes the pretext will have to be good one, but the current composition of parliament is likely to provide that at some stage. And Labor won’t repeat the mistakes of the last election, whereas Abbott has already achieved his Personal Best and is unlikely to be able to replicate it.
One thing that could really go wrong for Labor here though is if the implementation of the NBN is stuffed up, even in a quite minor way. That would leave them forever tagged (somewhat undeservingly IMO, but I know your mileage varies) as “wasteful and incompetent”. If I was Gillard my Comms Minister would be the most competent person available to me, with instructions to pay a lot of attention to governance issues with the rollout.
I’ll put my hand up Uncle Milton. I think transport sector reform is important but so too many other issues – reforming state taxes and charges is a tough one but should be put on the agenda. BTW why yet another summit? Why not take seriously many of the good ideas in the Nenry Review?
DD I don’t see any evidence that Abbott has had it. He had no experience in this role and handled it with a good deal of strength. Not sure about the investment in intelligence I agree. A key figure is Malcolm Turnbull who is one of the most creative and intelligent Liberal MPs. He could put forward a compromise carbon tax or ETS proposal now and the Liberals, if they have learnt anything from the performance of the Greens at this election, should go for it.
DD, I don’t see how the NBN can be stuffed up in the next couple of years. Isn’t it going to take 8 years to roll it out?
Harry, it will take a huge ideological about face for the Liberals just to take climate change seriously, let alone accept an ETS, even one crafted by Turnbull.
“I cannot forget or forgive Abbott’s backflip on the ETS.”
Yet apparently the backflippers on the great moral imperative get off scot free, including the Greens who voted it down with the Coalition in the Senate. Copenhagen teaches Harry nothing it seems, nor the rorting and total ineffectiveness of carbon credit creation and financial trading to date. Pardon some of us for believing you’re a slow learner that it’s now just a great big tax for the usual suspects to build the evil empire with, whatever the veracity of the science in the medium term.
“I don’t see how the NBN can be stuffed up in the next couple of years. Isn’t it going to take 8 years to roll it out?”
It’s like this UM. Conroy will continually be bombarded with requests for updates on the cost per household covered to date, the takeup rate and returns to date with Independents eager for him to explain it all openly and concisely every question time with full and frank access to the NBN Cos figures. No sweat if they’ve all done their homework properly. However I note Iprimus has just released their plans to the early FTTH lucky winners advertising (wait for it) 25Mb/sec maxm theoretical speeds for households but (wait for it) with the usual disclaimer about actual speeds we 24Mb/sec maxm copper trogs have come to know so well- ie a quarter to a half max in practice.
It’s like this for this ADSL2+ copper 8Mb/sec actual speed household UM. Would I stump up nearly $5000 plus the cost of home fitout to take up that hypothetical 25Mb/sec FTTH offer even though I can easily afford such largesse? About as likely as the 90 yr old mother in law who’s never even touched a computer keyboard, or the son and his Gen whatever mates who made up that 30% increase in 3G wireless takeup last fin yr, while Telstra lost 200000 landlines with record immigration, the SAHT tenants, first home buyer country, yada, yada… yet now we all have to do so compulsorily one way or another. What about yourself UM? Me, I’ve got better things to invest in like milking the ‘reshiftable’ solar feed-in RECs and feed-in tarriffs (Ranny has just pledged to up the SA rate from 44c to 60c/kwhr to bring us into line with Eastern snouts would you believe?) before that 60MW global cap is reached and boohoo for the latecomers. Still Harry and Co need plenty of RECs for their Morgan Sachs ‘too big to fail’ empire by all accounts.
Count me agnostic on the science but a firm skeptic on prescription UM largely because my home 2.1Kw solar system was producing nothing at midday last week on a dark, wet, windy day yet Greens apparently believe we can run NBNs completely on such whimsical pork, let alone whole modern industrialised economies. I worry for the kids and the battlers out there UM but what can I or the Coalition do about it for the time being? Pass the popcorn, there’s a good chap.
Observa, I read your stream of consciousness several times but couldn’t understand it. You seem to be conflating broadband and climate changer policy but I’m not really sure.
As far as broadband speeds go, I have an expensive ADSL plan with Telstra, live about one kilometre from an exchange, and routinely get less than 1 MB per second.
Fibre can’t come quickly enough for me. I could bundle broadband, pay TV and phone in the one superior service and pay less, even if I paid $200 per month, which is the number talked about for the NBN.
The conflation will be the inflation or interest bill for the kids to pay for this giant wishlist on carbon credit or whatever UM. Cope should have finally debunked the ETS prescription myth, whatever the problems for the science with the latest heavyweight stats boys drawing a straight line through their infamous hockey stick. Still, maybe they’re right and more shiploads of brown and black coal will pay for it all but count me an avowed skeptic on that score. As for reshiftables what can I say except stop this madness and go nukes like Barry Brook recommends if CO2 still freaks you out. Encourage China to do likewise rather than this crap
http://www.manufacturing.net/News/FeedsAP/2010/08/mnet-industry-focus-energy-un-board-could-rein-in-27-billion-carbon-market/
I’m glad you put that $200/month figure on what you’d pay UM and likely so would I(including telephony) but the Telcos already know most will only pay about $50/month for reasonable broadband. On top of our phone bill($50-$60)I pay $44.95 for 12GB(forget the extra 12GB offpeak)for actual 8MB/sec on copper and that’s fine for our household, albeit we all have mobile phones ($19.95 for $300 worth of calls on TPG/Optus cap) We can pay more but I live on easy street but how on earth are struggletown going to finance their share of around $5k each to have that fibre running to their home, let alone actually paying the costs of signing on and using it. Then there’s the mounting number of kids who want wireless anyway no matter how much you subsidise fibre. They just don’t see our wired up world as being relevant anymore, apart from their ‘free’ wired workplaces.
But don’t take my word for it UM take the household offer by iprimus as indicative of what they think that particular market will bear-
http://www.iprimus.com.au/PrimusWeb/HomeSolutions/FibretotheHome/
So much for Conroy’s 100Mb/sec for all let alone his 1Gb brainfart. Note the download speed they’re offering to the householder and the disclaimer on that. Yes you can have 100Mb/sec folks but give us a ring and we’ll discuss your particular ‘business’ needs. How long before the NBN penny drops with our new open and frank kumbaya parliament UM?
It’s like this chaps-
http://www.photius.com/wfb1999/rankings/population_density_0.html
Oz at number 230 just ahead of Namibia at 231, Mongolia 233 and Antarctica 239 and these guys wanna wire up yurts and penguins figuratively speaking.
Here’s an incisive interview with Paul Broad from AAPT on the prospects of NBN FTTH after AAPT couldn’t even make a fist of FTTN in the pick of the metro areas-
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/KGBTV?ReadForm
Basically Gillard Labor are rolling the NBN dice to back Conroy’s completely uncosted, off top of the head brainwave, to save face when he couldn’t get any Telcos interested in his original $4.7bill plan and he wanted to show Telstra who was boss for totally ignoring him at the time. That tells me Labor don’t have anyone with any real business acumen prepared to stand up and avert this political disaster waiting to happen. Conroy’s hubris in this has no doubt been force fed by the rest of the telco players who are only too willing to egg him on in his crusade to see Telstra taken down a peg or two. They’re pushing his leftist buttons and appealing to his wounded pride and the dopey beggar can’t see it and nor can the rest of Labor. As I said, pass the popcorn.