As Machievelli wrote five hundred years ago, “there is nothing more difficult … than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things, because the innovator has for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new.” Nowhere has this been truer than in the climate change debate, where those with most to gain are not even born yet, and those with most to lose are some of the wealthiest and most ruthless industries on the planet. (Ben Eltham, at Unleashed).
It is now quite clear that the US Senate will not approve comprehensive measures to address climate change. The denialists, as well as the near universal human emotions of greed and stupidity, have won the day and we will all pay for this. My immediate concern is to watch for the reaction of China. The US and China each contribute about 20% of the world’s CO2 emissions and jointly consume about 50% of the world’s coal. Over the next few years China will add about 500,000 MW of coal-fired electricity which will provide emissions about equal to those currently delivered by coal-burning for electricity in the US today. It is a huge surging delivery of carbon emissions. China is currently embarked on a massive renewables and carbon-containment regime – a program which utterly dwarfs anything in the US but still they need to dramatically expand their energy consumption to realise even modest development goals. The hope was that the surge in Chinese and other developing country emissions would be accompanied by dramatic cuts in developing country emissions until roughly equal per capita emissions resulted globally. Then countries would all stabilise their emissions at levels which do not threaten climate.
China insists that the US make significant emissions cuts before it will do more than it currently is doing. The fear of course is that the Senate outcome will lead to no additional mitigation responses by China and to a real global crisis. The US policy failure is immoral, destructive and dangerous. For me the stark issues this failure raises are only starting to sink in. It is a disaster.
Forgive them Harry for they know not what they did to science and the scientific method-
http://www.american.com/archive/2010/july/science-turns-authoritarian
It started a long time ago when we stood down the gatekeepers and flung open the doors of our Sandstones with all good intentions. Unfortunately we let the Barbarians in. There are some timeless values worth conserving and leftism isn’t one of them. Quite the contrary. They were going to change the world through education and they’ve succeeded. Here’s a classic example of the genre now-
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/population-debate-hides-an-ugly-racism-20100729-10xx2.html
Relax Harry, there are more important things to concern oneself over than a few points of a degree. Don’t cogitate detachedly over the minutiae of the facts, but immerse yourself fully, and experience the emotional width of the context. There are none so blind who cannot feel the facts Harry. How does it feel now?
This bloke gets the big picture in a business rag-
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/John-Kay-Obliquity-higher-education-finance-succes-pd20100729-7T4J8?OpenDocument&src=mp
Heh heh great comments observa, ps what is going on with NASA saying global warming is real, the melting arctic ice – obviously they are part of the delusion as well. Please enlighten us….you’ve got it all worked out.
Not to mention those stupid people who insisted on dying in melbuurne’s record smashing heatwave in 2009 ,of course in Observa-world, that didn’t happen…..
“Please enlighten us….you’ve got it all worked out.”
Well no hector, that’s my very point and one Mark Carnegie makes so poignantly with some precious pearls of wisdom for us all surrounding that notion of obliquity. Perhaps I can appreciate that more having been in business and as he says-
“Every day you see people trying really hard and failing miserably.” I’d have to agree having never worked so hard in my life at something and yet been nearly broke twice and close to throwing in the towel on both occasions. While there’s something to be said for perseverance and belief in one’s own infallibility the marketplace can be very disagreeable. It’s then you’ll need your wits about you to accept that judgement, adapt to it and push on. It’s being open and honest about what works and what doesn’t and your own particular strengths and weaknesses in adapting to that. When Carnegie says- “My career was one of obliquity writ large.” I instantly recognised that as applying to myself and so many of my peers and how modest success would find me just as obliquely in the end with a fraction of the effort. What you have to learn quickly or not survive long is the marketplace is the very antithesis of authoritarianism and that can be very disconcerting for a young fellow full of himself and his own importance. You’ll learn to put yourself around the other side of the table in any business transcation or venture because it must be win/win with absolute integrity and honesty. Don’t kid yourself or try and bluff your way through the unfamiliar. eg A client asks you about an unfamiliar product or procedure and the temptation of many a salesman is to bluff or wing their way past it with customer dissatisfaction looming down the track. I quickly learned to admit I was not familiar with that and I’ll get back to them on it, to which I would after doing my homework (and oh for the power of the internet then)
That’s the problem we market men have with leftist authoritarians and tree huggers who fail to see the wood for the trees. It’s like that silly woman and her blinkered, narrow, ‘educated’ judgement of Julia Gillard kissing babies. With all the powerful and banal forces swirling about Gillard that she has to deal with on the campaign trail, complete with bags under her eyes, our expert bores in with some bizarre, psycho-gender/racial claptrap from her narrow cloister, when kissing or holding babies thrust at you is probably all about over enthusiastic and proud new mums wanting a photo op with Oz’s first woman PM for the kid’s album, to trot it out for the 21st down the track. Obliquity is definitely the only prescription here and a year or perhaps two, sabbatical in a child care centre would see to that perfectly.
As for NASA, melting ice, etc I’ll let real science work it all out. As for Melbournians dying in heatwaves that’s like South Americans freezing to death in winter and it’s called weather or climate if you insist. However to whatever the science can agree on with warming = caused by CO2 = if you don’t agree with global carbon credit creation and trading then clearly you’re a Holocaust denier, I simply say Brendan Nelson was clearly a man ahead of his time and the sublime irony is that if a majority of us had voted for Howard last time round we’d now have Rudd’s ETS. A scintillating obliquity thought for us all no doubt.
Well if obliquity doesn’t grab you sometimes it’s the inevitability of Blair’s Law and Copenhagen. No need to point the finger at conspiracy when Groupthink or mob hysteria, coupled with powerful economic incentives will do just nicely. Think Y2K as well here. Of course there is that noble adage- ‘If at first you don’t succeed, try try again’ which I’d recommend but only with a market man’s caveat, namely if you’re banging your head against a brick wall repeatedly try looking about for any clues to another oblique or tangential approach to the underlying problem. On that note you might want to look at my more oblique approach outlined at the Tax Redux post and subsequent over at Club Troppo. I do bang on a bit but it’s a big topic and there are a lot of clues to it all floating around out there. A lifetime of obliquity no doubt.
That’s my favourite Macchiavelli quote. A few years ago, I wrote it on a system card, and read it on every tram trip until I knew it. HA!