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Gillard replaces Rudd

As I unambigiously forecast 10 days ago Kevin Rudd is finished as PM and Julia Gillard has replaced him.  It was inevitable as the near certainly of an electoral defeat Federally loomed large for Labor.  The change wasn’t due to the media campaigning against Rudd and, on this occasion anyway, it wasn’t primarily a foolish right-wing factional move.  It was simply the recognition that this man could not continue as PM.  The tragedy was that Rudd was too foolish to see his own limitations and has needed to be cut back in size in this fairly cruel way.  I felt sadness for Rudd – he was hopelessly out of his depth in this role – I forecast this would be the case before he was elected and my view has never shifted.  At core Rudd lacks conviction and a real sense that he is on top of things.

The positives from this change? It is a positive that Julia Gillard was elected as she is, in all senses, more intelligent and capable than Rudd. That a female has been elected is a beneficial side-outcome.  She was part of the Rudd team so it is, in a sense, reshuffling the deck chairs,  but she is much more able.

That it remains plausible that Labor will lose the forthcoming election is undeniable.  But that it now has a more capable leader is a positive for all non-decisive individual voters.  I have observed Gillard and Abbott debating – they seem to almost enjoy their encounters – and Gillard is certainly tough enough to handle Abbott.  She maintains her cool, is strong on logic and often uses less polemic and polly-babble than populists like Abbott. This might change with her new position.

I wouldn’t vote for Gillard but welcome her election as PM.

3 comments to Gillard replaces Rudd

  • observa

    “There’s more chance of me becoming the full-forward for the Dogs than there is any chance of a change in the Labor Party.” -Julia Gillard May 17
    And that’s the worry at present if you take her statement literally.

  • MH

    To dump an incumbent PM late term after not completing one term in office for Gillard was not foolish but stupidity and the voters of Australia will recognise this. Just as foolish as the right wing factional advice that Rudd had taken on on some of the policy areas that he dumped and now they have dumped him. A measure of their desperation to keep on the gravy train. Ignoring the personalities, it was not Rudd that was off with the voters but the Labour Party’s policies and methods, nothing will have changed nor can be changed with any credibility with most voters with the change to Gillard. The conservatives must not be able to believe their luck. The Federal Labour Party is now well and truly infected with the NSW disease that arises from the fleas in Sussex St. The silence from Labour in all the other states is deafening. Well the vicious self interest is now on display for all to see. The crowing of the AWU officials just added to the bonfire of their vanities. Bereft of principle, decency or regard for the people of Australia they should be rightly and loudly condemned and dispatched at the next election.

    Had Gillard won the position in her own right and in an honourable way and not because of the machinations of the right within the ALP she may have had some credibility nothwithstanding her various political attributes now she looks just like all the other previous doomed women called into clean up the mess left (WA, VIC and NSW). No victory for women here more of the same if you ask me.

  • observa

    I think your summation is right MH. Couldn’t help thinking while the AWU bloke was prattling on basically how Rudd couldn’t get their ‘message’ across anymore that he was oblivious to the fact their message stank and it was just a case of shoot the messenger. Gillard might well do a better job in that regard and be a better leader and team builder but you can’t help feeling she’s got an impossible timeline and little experience in the top job to make much headway.

    Their message stank, not with any one particular policy but with the overall conglomeration of them. Whilst you couldn’t point to any particular culprit, the whole added up to a familiar pattern of ill-thought out, it seemed like a good idea at the time, ideology lacking real substance or direction. Bolty rounds up some of these obvious criticisms from the likes of Crean, Ferguson and George here
    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/is_rudd_gone/
    In particular Fergusons critique of Govts that go for news cycle actions over carefully considered outcomes. In that regard we’d been spoiled by Howard and his ability to let his Ministers have their say and their head. Basically he was a great manager and team builder which largely avoided the sort of mistakes of the recent presidential style. Sure he had the ultimate say and an experienced sense of when to have it (a la Latham and pollies super), but you never got the sense he rode roughshod over the team at their professional expense. Not so Dudd. His shock replacement smacks again of panic and setting up Gillard to fail. Still they may have had no choice in the final analysis but whose fault was that ultimately? After all this was the collective brains trust that picked Dudd in the first place.

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