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Things look up for Labor & Kevin Rudd

Kristina Keneally forecast a loss of 30% in Labor’s Penrith by-election – in fact on the latest figures the final loss will only be 27.5%.  The avalanche of support for the Liberals is likely to be a one-off. In any event, the issues of corruption and incompetence in NSW public administration have nothing to do with Federal Labor or current disquiet over super taxes and policy backflips. Indeed Christina remains confident of winning the State election in March 2011 – she can base her policy on the fact that she is better looking than Barry O’Farrell if all else fails – that was basically the strategy in Penrith.  Those at Larvatus Prodeo see the results as a vote for the Greens – they doubled their vote to 12% – with no Federal implications whatever and you can count on that lot to take as dispassionate view. In terms of Federal politics the Liberals can take no joy from the Penrith election.  The Labor successes in promoting climate policy measures, the reliance of Rudd on achievement rather than grand statement – e.g. the successes of the roof insulation scheme and the inexpensive widely-praised program of school refurbishments are still holding him well up in the polls. While his popularity may have collapsed by 20% in six months as the primary vote for Labor has fallen to 39% there are good reasons for supposing Rudd will, in the words of a recent commentor here, be re-elected with an increased majority.

Rudd is still scoring well in the resource states who will hopefully come to see the benefits of annihilating their profitable resource sectors with the resource super tax and rebuilding a strong manufacturing base that will compete successfully with China (Tasmania, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia look like troublesome exceptions and NSW as a non-resource state doesn’t look that good ) and Rudd can still look forward to strong continued support in Victoria and the Northern Territory.  The Neilson Poll’s forecasts that Labor will lose the Federal election by 59 seats to 88 with 3 others seems to make no sense at all given Labor’s underlying strengths.

Most of all Kevin Rudd’s future seems secure. Labor politicians are never ones to put short-term electoral prospects ahead of loyalty to their leader.  These are politicians of conviction with a simple home spun message of honesty and principle.  Besides Julia Gillard might do worse – a succession of Labor replacement premiers in NSW seem not to have improved things electorally for Labor in that state although the picture that has emerged of the right-wing monster faction in NSW as comprising a third-rate bunch of talentless, spivs, frauds and sex offenders is unfair to those who grace our prisons.

6 comments to Things look up for Labor & Kevin Rudd

  • Sinclair Davidson

    I agree she is very cute – and living in Victoria we have luxury of having a perv without having to experience her appalling government.

    (should be March 2011, not 2008).

  • via collins

    Very amusing Harry.

    Even in parody, some of those words must have been difficult to actually write!

  • observa

    Well now Julia has a lean and hungry look about her and no doubt the numbers of the loyal faithful. Naturally all these true faithful are responsible for their scintillating choice of Kevin07 in the first place but well you know how it is when all this leadership speculation is inhibiting their ‘real message’ from getting through, as one AWU hatchet man put it. Well with new lamps for old Julia can no doubt water down/scrap the mining tax grab, sue for peace with the miners and clear the decks for an election. Then the question remains as to how she’ll address the people smuggling and the great moral imperative of our time. Will she resurrect the ETS again as major election issue to cover her BER shortcomings? We live in interesting times again and no doubt Lil Johnny is chuckling.

  • observa

    Which raises an interesting question now we have the benefit of hindsight. Should Costello have been less loyal to his PM and done a Julia?

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