Huw Slater at East Asia Forum thinks so.
He argues that a carbon tax in China is being considered within the period of the 12th Five Year Plan, beginning next year. A workshop I attended earlier this year suggested the same. My own work suggests that strategically China needs to mitigate its emissions because it has no alternative. It will be devastated by climate change and its individual emissions impact on its future. It is not a ‘small’ country.
China was obstructionist at Copenhagen but Premier Wen Jiabao announced then that China was committing to a reduction in emissions intensity of its economy of 40-45% by 2020 over 2005 levels. This is a difficult to achieve target but one that is possible given substantial economy-wide energy inefficiencies.
The possibility of carbon pricing provides hope. While the initial price is suggested to be as low as 20 Yuan per tonne CO2, it will be progressively increased over time, making inefficient coal-fired power stations less attractive and further increasing the competitiveness of wind, solar and other technologies. Worth a read and some valuable links in the original post.
China is certainly outperforming Australia and the US. So too – from the other end of the scale – for that matter is New Zealand which has announced it will unilaterally move towards an emissions trading scheme despite the cowardice of its big brothers.
Chinese are thinking Gigi tax, aka Leslie Caron? How cineaste of them.
OK corrected.
They need to wait for real science to get to the bottom of it all here Harry-
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704655004575114010457906340.html?mod=wsj_india_main
Like the man says- “Unfortunately many of our proxies have significant errors and are prone to be a slave to assumptions,”
My my, isn’t that the understatement of our times? Only this time round they’re getting lots of labs and their scientists to cross check the ice core results and about bloody time!
And perhaps China and India should really be concentrating on their soot problem?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/31/wuwt-arctic-sea-ice-new-7/
not to mention where have all the thermometers gone?
http://joannenova.com.au/2010/05/the-great-dying-of-thermometers/
Sounds like Peter, Paul and Mary should hit the comeback trail with a subtle change to the lyrics.
Harry Clarke said:
I have been arguing for years that the PRC will probably be the country that pulls the RoW out of its AGW death spiral. And moreover that it will do it without the dodgy dealing that comes with an ETS, using a combination of carbon taxation and technological regulation.
More generally the PRC’s economic model, and ethnic basis, poses a dramatic challenge to the wishy-washy form of post-modernist liberalism that the Occident has embraced.