Another retrieved post – thanks Christina.
An excellent article from The Economist. El Niño Effects and changes in the sun’s intensity are likely to make 2010 the hottest year since the previous record in 1998 (Chart 1). There remain uncertainties however.
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| On average things got hotter in the 2000s although no record highest temperature was hit. This can occur since heat can be stored in such things as the oceans and not show up immediately on meteorologists’ thermometers. Now however the tropical Pacific is dumping heat via a strong heating El Niño of the type associated with the 1998 record. In 2007 and 2008 a cooling La Niña explained why these years were not record highs. In addition the sun’s brightness – which fluctuates a little over an 11-year cycle - it should begin to brighten over the next 12 months.
The British Met Office’s made these forecasts using the Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) - an attempt to account for GGE-induced climate change effects accounting for these background effects at any time. In 2007 DePreSys predicted a few more years which would set no records followed by a temperature rise with odds of 5 to 1. Thus climate variability can be accounted for. Kevin Trenberth of America’s National Centre for Atmospheric Research wants to better understand in detail the natural variability seen since 1998. Trenberth believes it should be possible to identify where energy gets ‘hidden’ from climatologists and that this knowledge should improve forecasts of consequences of GGE accumulations.
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