While many have devoted time and effort trying to predict what will come out of the Copenhagen meetings I have largely elected to wait-and-see. Even that is difficult – this article from Bridges I found useful. It is the first in a series and I will update.
Major issues are defeating the forces of denialism in the US and reconciling the ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ of developed and developing countries while not destroying agreement edfficiency. Many of these issues relate to trade and trade policy.
My attitude has remained fairly constant on these issues for some time. In essence I endorse orthodoxy. I favour strong emissions controls in all countries with compensatory transfers of emission permits to developing countries. Emissions permits should be traded in an international market based on a countries greenhouse gas emission consumption so border taxes on imports from countries without mitigation measures in place are essential.
Whatever my thoughts on a global ETS, on top of Climategate it’s getting harder to be an agnostic Harry-
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/climate-claims-fail-science-test/story-e6frg6zo-1225808398627
Did you come to endorse orthodoxy on the basis of testable, reproducible science or because you wanted to believe?
See what Monbiot saw Harry. I get the sense this whole house of cards is crumbling and as it does, true believers like Manne and Hamilton are really losing it. Tim Lambert want to defend against my accusation that this isn’t the cheer squads at the ABC patronising what amounts to child abuse from these sorts of fruitloops- http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2765351.htm
Abbott knows what’s going down. He’s getting bolder by the statement and now he’s got the Govt on the hop and running scared and they have every right to be, given the political capital they’ve invested in this global mass hysteria over CO2. He’s taunting them now with -Copenhagen is a PR stunt and a Munich agreement but don’t read anything into a throwaway line Tony (Jones).
While Aunty has largely been as silent as a lamb on Climategate and increasingly been running more frenetic spruiking for the cause I thought I sensed a quiver in their bedrock foundations on ABC news tonight. It was a curiously quixotic piece later in the news. Pan to the usual smokestacks on some ubiquitous US coal fired power station and show how they were onboard with CO2 sequestration and then off to the punchline. How US voters were dropping off the bandwagon according to the polls and now rating carbon trading at number 20 on their list of priorities. Perhaps preparing down the track for ‘don’t blame Obama folks’? Could be wrong but a somewhat curious and anachronistic piece, it struck me at the time.
Outside Aunty the MSM are beginning to pick up the scent of Climategate and run with skeptic articles that were unheard of a matter of weeks ago. The media momentum has a life of its own now beyond its sideline introducers in Blair and Bolt and its quickening beyond the orthodoxy’s control. The wolf pack media instincts have kicked in with the scent of blood about.
They’re asking the hard questions of the science gang of 24-
http://www.copenhagenclimatechallenge.org/
While Pepe Escobar the resident third world lefty among a sea of Austrians at the Asia Times has some thoughts on the leaked recipe they’re cooking up-
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/KL10Ad01.html
and bearing in mind Obama’s political home base is also the home of the Chicago Climate Exchange
This analysis of the unelected US EPA’s move to play politics and frustrate facing the people on an ETS is correct and may well win the day-
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/COPENHAGEN-CALLING-Bolstering-Barack-pd20091209-YJR3A?OpenDocument&src=kgb
In particular-
“The Republicans, who can stop an ETS in the Senate, are furious and are even threatening to hobble the EPA by cutting its funding. But as IPCC head Yvo de Boer says, most business people would be begging for an agreement at Copenhagen and an ETS rather than risk being regulated by the EPA, and they will be making their thoughts well known to the Senators.
The interest for Australian business, and for Abbott, is that Australia will invariably want to follow what the US does. If the US goes to an ETS, Australian business will be screaming to join.”
Then the interest may turn to a possible US court challenge to the EPA’s inclusion of a naturally occurring, colourless odourless gas in its ruling. That might see the courts having to rule on the apparently new ‘consensus’ view of science vs the ‘traditional’ data, methodology all checkable and reproducible view. That could get interesting. Any legal eagles with a view on the feasibility of a court challenge to the EPA ruling?
Whoa up there guys! Don’t you know you’re supposed to be true believers?
http://www.news.com.au/business/breaking-news/government-shelves-coal-export-plans/story-e6frfkur-1225808860824
At least wait till the fat lady sings, but perhaps they got a bit carried away with ‘Sea levels, schmea levels’ or ‘What the hell, those rich coast huggers don’t vote for us anyway’-
http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/mediterranean-sea-filled-in-two-years/story-e6frfku0-1225808856451
Yeah I know Harry stop laughing this is serious.