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Good poll news for Coalition

The Herald /Neilson poll shows promising news for the Coalition.

The Coalition is – as it should be – making significant inroads against Rudd and Labor. A 5% swing to The Coalition since March and back to the narrow margin of the 2007 poll. Labor leads the Coalition by 53% to 47%, down from the 58-42 gap in the previous poll. The Coalition made up 9  points in the crucial primary vote. Labor’s primary vote fell 3 points to 44% while support for the Coalition rose 6 to 43%.

This is despite general satisfaction with the budget. Six out 10 were unhappy with the decision to raise the retirement age to 67.

Rudd’s approval rating has fallen 10 points to 64% while his disapproval rose 10 points to 32%. Mr Turnbull’s approval rating stayed steady at 43%, as did his disapproval rating of 47%.

Rudd still leads his rival as preferred PM but by 9 points less than 2 months ago. Rudd’s preferred PM rating fell 5 points to 64%. Mr Turnbull’s rose 4 points to 28%.

The Coalition will get more votes highlighting debt and deficit issues. There are votes in emphasising the Rudd-Swan team buffoonery.  So far these issues have not driven polls.  The normally sensible Brian at LP gets it wrong when the switch is attributed to a ‘big lie’ regarding debt and the deficit in the budget – on the contrary the budget was well-received.  The Labor cheer squad who wriggled around with comments on the uncomfortable poll trends missed this point too.

The tragedy of it all overwhelms me.

15 comments to Good poll news for Coalition

  • “Or maybe not”.

    To put it into perspective, the weekend poll puts the Coalition back to about where they were when Turnbull took over the leadership.

    Now, if they can just get rid of Costello and find a coherent policy stance, the Coalition might begin to become competitive. I wouldn’t hold your breath in the short term.

  • hc

    Slim, I tried to prepare the mangled link. Was it this?

  • Sorry about the mangled link. Should be Pollytics. See if that one works 🙂

  • Sinclair Davidson

    But Harry, you’re a Green voter now. You should be appalled that those disgraceful Tories are improving in the polls. 🙂

  • hc

    Sinclair, These remarks had a snff about them. I checked across at Catallaxy where predictably Cambria has made false claims that have motivated your pointscoring remarks. What I said was:

    “Given the ambiguity of the Liberals on this issue – they should be pushing hard to achieve sensible climatic change policies – I will think seriously about voting for the idiot Greens (woeful economics, sound environmental policies) in the next election. It is one way I can indicate my total disgust with both major political parties in Australia because of their lack of principle on the climate change issue”.

    Cambria is an waste of time and is not someone I will engage with – on other blogs or here. Given his recent false claims about John Quiggin I thought you would understand this.

  • conrad

    I think this shows what is wrong with politics in Australia. It seems to me that what Kruddy is unpopular for is simply doing something that will have to be done (i.e., moving the pension age back) in the long term by someone, unless we all want to go broke as the population ages. Is Turnbull going to say that is a bad thing?

    Perhaps Kruddy could start giving money away again to increase his popularity. What the heck, why not reduce the retirement age to 60 so we can all just bludge off the government for a few more years of our lives? I’m sure everyone would love that (except those that have to pay for it).

  • Sinclair Davidson

    Actually, I’m remembering what you said at your own blog.

    I think a lot of people will vote for the Greens next election. Many like me will consider doing so as a protest.

  • At least Brain has a sense of humour:

    “My thought was, what a pity the Liberals have once again trashed sensible policy discourse for for sake of political expedience.”

  • Uncle Milton

    Unfortunately the Neilsen poll has been contradicted by the Newspoll, which shows Labor’s vote going up from 55 to 56.

    Go figure.

  • Harry harry harry

    – Rudd is more bland and boring than Howard (surely some award is available) yet Mal Turnbull can’t lay a finger on him – when sinecured chaps not unlike yourself in suede patches on the old harris tweed FJ sportcoat are actively contemplating slinging their preferences to an old repressed calvinist nanny statist fruit like Brownie and you can spin it positive?? – you’ve missed your calling.

    I suggest you email to VC, or his PA, I’m sure he’s too refined to read his own emails, and push yourself forward as the Communications Strategy Director / Academic for LaTrobe.

    Be a good career move – you’d have an office in amongst all the young 30 something female arts/media/communications grads who went straight Latrobe from their Heidelberg private schools and then straight to a well paid job at Latrobe after graduation. You’d be popular I’d guess because unlike the majority of their humanities tutors, lecturers and a/Profs you won’t be hitting on the girls all through their courses and internship in return for a HD or pass. [an expose on uni sexual shennanigans would make nsw rugby league look like a meeting of the Balmain Feminists co-operative]

    Disclaimer: The above is a piece of speculative fiction written for the purposes of entertainment and does not purport to be an accurate reflection of any institution (TAFE or legitimate),person or profession. In addition it was written specificaly for the internet. An ephemeral medium at best.

  • hc

    Uncle Milton, I saw that. Let’s wait for the next poll.

    FXH, I’ve never owned a sports coat with those suave patches on the elbows. Turnbull is doing OK.

  • Mark U

    I like the idea of suave patches – sounds much better than suede.

    If there is a buffon around it has to be Joe Hockey. Just look at his performance on the 7.30 Report last night. http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2009/s2575321.htm

  • hc

    Mark, I think this was not Joe at his best but I support Hockey’s general line that the Treasury forecasts are optimistic. The current recession is much worse than those occurring in the recent past. It also has a financial component at least in the US and Europe that might be expected to slow the recovery. I think neither Treasury nor the Government nor the Opposition have much of a clue but I don’t think you could reasonably describe the treasury forecasts as ‘conservative’.

    OK suede.

  • I was studying something else about this on another blog. Interesting. Your perspective on it is diametrically contradicted to what I read before. I am still reflecting over the various points of view, but I’m leaning heavily toward yours. And regardless, that’s what is so good about modernized democracy and the marketplace of ideas on-line.