Comments on: Budget 2009 http://www.harryrclarke.com/2009/05/13/budget-2009/ On economics, politics & other things Tue, 07 Feb 2012 11:34:25 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Ros http://www.harryrclarke.com/2009/05/13/budget-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-352 Ros Thu, 14 May 2009 08:07:07 +0000 http://www.harryrclarke.com/?p=244#comment-352 Harry do you have any views on the psychological effects of, or can you direct to any others who might, the budget changes to super and changing the right to access a pension. That is on the decisions that older Australians might make about their participation in the workforce or how they behave within the paid workforce. A skim of the Treaury review gives no indication that there was any consideration of the possible impacts on the choices that Australians would make in light of their suggested changes. Instapundit directs towards some interesting thoughts on the "galt effect" of Obama's attacks on those middle class/professionals/selfemployed and how hard they are prepared to work now. "The doctors, lawyers, engineers, executives, serious small-business owners, top salespeople, and other professionals and entrepreneurs who make this country run work considerably harder than pretty much anyone else (including most of the chattering class, and all politicians). They are not robber barons, or trust-fund babies, or plutocrats, or even celebrities.....More problematically, he is penalizing their success and giving them very clear incentives to ratchet back on productivity. " My husband and my son-in-law and daughter have considered why they should work as hard as they do. I am sure there are many more. Harry do you have any views on the psychological effects of, or can you direct to any others who might, the budget changes to super and changing the right to access a pension. That is on the decisions that older Australians might make about their participation in the workforce or how they behave within the paid workforce. A skim of the Treaury review gives no indication that there was any consideration of the possible impacts on the choices that Australians would make in light of their suggested changes.

Instapundit directs towards some interesting thoughts on the “galt effect” of Obama’s attacks on those middle class/professionals/selfemployed and how hard they are prepared to work now.

“The doctors, lawyers, engineers, executives, serious small-business owners, top salespeople, and other professionals and entrepreneurs who make this country run work considerably harder than pretty much anyone else (including most of the chattering class, and all politicians). They are not robber barons, or trust-fund babies, or plutocrats, or even celebrities…..More problematically, he is penalizing their success and giving them very clear incentives to ratchet back on productivity. ”

My husband and my son-in-law and daughter have considered why they should work as hard as they do. I am sure there are many more.

]]> By: Uncle Milton http://www.harryrclarke.com/2009/05/13/budget-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-348 Uncle Milton Wed, 13 May 2009 05:35:24 +0000 http://www.harryrclarke.com/?p=244#comment-348 Harry, you might be right, but every recession feels like it will never end. They always do. Harry, you might be right, but every recession feels like it will never end. They always do.

]]> By: hc http://www.harryrclarke.com/2009/05/13/budget-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-347 hc Wed, 13 May 2009 03:28:45 +0000 http://www.harryrclarke.com/?p=244#comment-347 Uncle Milton, I did write of assumptions about recovery in the international economy and these will be terms-of -trade improvements. I am unconvinced that these will be as great as those experienced in the past and very concerned about the pace of their arrival. Supply effects will moderate price increases and we are assuming that tentative signs of recovery in the Chinese economy will be sustained. I hope they are. The assumption in the budget is that recovery will be quick. If it isn't the budget strategy will come under pressure. Uncle Milton, I did write of assumptions about recovery in the international economy and these will be terms-of -trade improvements.

I am unconvinced that these will be as great as those experienced in the past and very concerned about the pace of their arrival. Supply effects will moderate price increases and we are assuming that tentative signs of recovery in the Chinese economy will be sustained. I hope they are.

The assumption in the budget is that recovery will be quick. If it isn’t the budget strategy will come under pressure.

]]> By: Uncle Milton http://www.harryrclarke.com/2009/05/13/budget-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-345 Uncle Milton Tue, 12 May 2009 23:58:25 +0000 http://www.harryrclarke.com/?p=244#comment-345 Harry, you are assuming that the terms of trade shock is permanent. A more optimistic view is that the China growth story will resume fairly soon. They still have another 500 million peasants to urbanise. That is going to take a lot of coal and iron ore and inevitably their prices will shoot skywards again. (Though how a resumption of the China mega industrialisation story is consistent with keeping greenhouse gases under control is anyone's guess.) What the budget does show is the futility of using infrastructure projects as a tool of macroeconomic stabilisation. Worthy as they may be in their own right, by the time they are up and running the recession will be long gone. The government was quite correct to use cash grants as a stabilising measure. Harry, you are assuming that the terms of trade shock is permanent. A more optimistic view is that the China growth story will resume fairly soon. They still have another 500 million peasants to urbanise. That is going to take a lot of coal and iron ore and inevitably their prices will shoot skywards again.

(Though how a resumption of the China mega industrialisation story is consistent with keeping greenhouse gases under control is anyone’s guess.)

What the budget does show is the futility of using infrastructure projects as a tool of macroeconomic stabilisation. Worthy as they may be in their own right, by the time they are up and running the recession will be long gone. The government was quite correct to use cash grants as a stabilising measure.

]]> By: Where’s the debate? : Core Economics http://www.harryrclarke.com/2009/05/13/budget-2009/comment-page-1/#comment-344 Where’s the debate? : Core Economics Tue, 12 May 2009 20:54:29 +0000 http://www.harryrclarke.com/?p=244#comment-344 [...] prolonged than Treasury are predicting. Can we afford to do all of this right now?”  (see Harry Clarke for more pointers). I think we do need to spend that much but I am open to debate on this. Give us [...] [...] prolonged than Treasury are predicting. Can we afford to do all of this right now?”  (see Harry Clarke for more pointers). I think we do need to spend that much but I am open to debate on this. Give us [...]

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