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Who will win the next election?

Today’s Galaxy Poll shows an improvement in the chances of the Coalition – Labor gets 44% of the primary vote compared to the Coalition’s 41%. The two party preferred gives Labor 54% and the Coalition 46%. The Coalition have improved their primary vote 4% since April-May. An interesting analysis of the current situation is here. This confirms that the swing to Labor is ‘soft’ in the sense of being reversible.

I have patiently followed the polls and the betting markets for months. For a long-time I thought the betting markets were unduely optimistic for the Coalition – today Sportingbet is paying $1-60 for a $1 bet on Labor winning and $2-30 for a bet on the Coalition. As the opinion polls have shown the Coalition recovering the odds offered by the bookies for a Coalition win have narrowed.

It is anyone’s election in my view though Labor on current poll trends should win by a landslide.

As numerous commentators have said: The forthcoming election will be an interesting test of pollsters versus betting markets. As a good economist I am supposed to say markets aggregate information efficiently.

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